Minisymposium lectures

Integrating wastewater surveillance data with epidemic models: challenges and opportunities

Tin Phan

true  Thursday, 11:00 ! Ongoingin  Schultz Theatrefor  30min

Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. Yet, wastewater surveillance data is not independent of transmission dynamics and its integration with dynamic within-host and between-host models is necessary to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.

 Overview  Program