Contributed talks

Modelling the Impact of Seasonality on Mosquito Population Dynamics: Insights for Vector Control Strategies.

Joseph Baafi

true  Wednesday, 16:00 ! Ongoingin  Room 202for  30min

Mosquitoes are important vectors for the transmission of some major infectious diseases of humans, i.e., malaria, dengue, west Nile virus and Zika virus. The burden of these diseases is different for different regions, being highest in tropical and subtropical areas, which have high annual rainfall, warm temperatures, and less pronounced seasonality. The life cycle of mosquitoes consists of four distinct stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults. These life stages have different mortality rates and only adults can reproduce. Seasonal weather may affect the population dynamics of mosquitoes, and the relative abundance of different mosquito stages, since the maturation rate to the next stage depends on temperature, and because egg survival depends on rainfall. We developed a stage-structured model that considers laboratory experiments describing how temperature and rainfall affects the reproduction, maturation and survival of different Anopheles mosquito stages, the species that transmits the parasite that causes malaria. We consider seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns and describe the stage-structured population dynamics of the Anopheles mosquito in Ain Mahbel, Algeria, Cape Town, South Africa, Nairobi, Kenya and Kumasi, Ghana. We find that regional differences in seasonal weather patterns affect mosquito population dynamics. Control strategies often target one specific life stage, for example, applying larvicides to kill mosquito larvae, or spraying insecticides to kill adult mosquitoes. Our findings suggest that differences in seasonal weather patterns affect mosquito stage structure, and best approaches to vector control may vary between regions.

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